<p><a href="https://peterattiamd.com/annieduke/?utm_source=podcast-feed&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=240902-pod-annieduke&utm_content=240902-pod-annieduke-podfeed"> View the Show Notes Page for This Episode</a></p> <p><a href="https://peterattiamd.com/subscribe/?utm_source=podcast-feed&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=240902-pod-annieduke&utm_content=240902-pod-annieduke-podfeed"> Become a Member to Receive Exclusive Content</a></p> <p><a href="https://peterattiamd.com/newsletter/?utm_source=podcast-feed&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=240902-pod-annieduke&utm_content=240902-pod-annieduke-podfeed"> Sign Up to Receive Peter's Weekly Newsletter</a></p> <p>In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called "backcasting", a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan.</p> <p><strong>We discuss:</strong></p> <ul type="disc"> <li>Annie's background, favorite sports teams, and Peter's affinity for Bill Belichick [1:30];</li> <li>Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:45];</li> <li>Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren't wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:30];</li> <li>Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15];</li> <li>The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [32:15];</li> <li>A brief explanation of Texas hold 'em [41:00];</li> <li>The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:30];</li> <li>Why Annie likes to "quit fast," and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:45];</li> <li>Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [55:15];</li> <li>The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today's professionals [1:04:45];</li> <li>The decision matrix, and the "resulting" heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:30];</li> <li>The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:21:45];</li> <li>Poker as a model system for life [1:31:30];</li> <li>How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick's decision-making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:35:15];</li> <li>What did we learn about decision-making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:39:30];</li> <li>The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:43:00];</li> <li>The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:49:45];</li> <li>Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:52:15];</li> <li>The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:00:30];</li> <li>Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:11:00];</li> <li>The benefits of "backcasting" (and doing pre-mortems) [2:13:30];</li> <li>Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:21:30]; and</li> <li>More.</li> </ul> <p>Connect With Peter on <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterAttiaMD">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/peterattiamd/">Instagram</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/peterattiamd/">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8kGsMa0LygSX9nkBcBH1Sg">YouTube</a></p>
Actionable Insights
1. Master Decision Learning Levels
Progress through four levels of examining outcomes: from blaming luck for losses (Level 1), to taking responsibility for losses (Level 2), to analyzing all four decision quadrants (Level 3), and finally, to critically examining even good decisions with good outcomes for potential improvements (Level 4).
2. Utilize Backcasting for Goals
When setting a goal, imagine it’s already achieved (e.g., ‘it’s a year and a day and I achieved my goal’). Then, look backward and ask, ‘How did I actually achieve this?’ This helps identify the steps and factors that led to success.
3. Conduct a Pre-mortem for Failure
For any goal, envision that you have failed to achieve it (e.g., ‘it’s a year and a day and I failed’). Then, ask ‘Why did I fail?’ This process helps identify potential pitfalls and allows you to plan for them in advance.
4. Incorporate Luck into Planning
When using backcasting or pre-mortems, allow for the influence of luck in your analysis. This helps you explore ways to increase chances of positive luck, decrease negative luck, or hedge against unavoidable bad luck scenarios.
5. Plan for Bad Luck in Advance
By anticipating potential negative ’luck’ scenarios through pre-mortems, you can make decisions and plans in a calmer state of mind. This proactive approach prevents reactive, ‘pants on fire’ decision-making when adverse events occur.
6. Cultivate Probabilistic Thinking
Recognize that outcomes are not deterministic; many things can occur with varying likelihoods. Understanding this probabilistic nature of the world is crucial for making better decisions.
7. Catch Decision Errors Faster
Actively strive to identify and correct errors in your decision-making process more quickly. Even small, frequent improvements in catching errors can significantly enhance overall decision quality.
8. Practice ‘Quit Fast’ Strategy
Embrace the philosophy of quitting quickly when something isn’t working or isn’t a good fit. This minimizes opportunity costs and allows you to reallocate resources to more promising endeavors.
9. Test for Skill vs. Luck
To determine if an activity primarily involves skill, ask yourself: ‘Can I lose on purpose?’ If you can, it indicates a significant skill component, as opposed to pure luck.
10. Explore All Outcome Directions
When evaluating outcomes, maintain equanimity regardless of whether the result was good or bad. Explore ‘could I have done worse?’ and ‘could I have done better?’ to gain comprehensive insights.
11. Think Orthogonally About Outcomes
Consider that outcomes might be due to reasons unrelated to your decision process, or that you won/lost for reasons you didn’t predict. This helps avoid misattributing success or failure solely to your actions.
12. Learn from Unexpected Wins
Don’t just celebrate unexpectedly good outcomes; actively investigate why they occurred. This helps identify new strategies or factors that contributed to success, which can then be intentionally replicated.
Before an activity, forecast your expected performance (e.g., percentage of bullseyes). If actual performance deviates significantly (either better or worse), actively investigate the reasons to understand what changed.
14. Challenge Your Own Ideas
Actively seek out challenges to your decisions and beliefs, both from others and from within yourself. This helps prevent self-deception and ensures a more robust decision-making process.
15. Seek Pure, Unbiased Feedback
Actively solicit feedback from others, ensuring you communicate in a way that encourages honesty and doesn’t bias their responses. Being genuinely ‘hungry for the information’ is the crucial first step.
16. Know When to Decide Fast
Understand the broader decision-making framework to discern which decisions require careful, slow consideration versus those that can be made quickly. This prevents analysis paralysis on minor choices.
17. Embrace Relative Certainty
For bigger decisions, once you’ve identified options and one appears better than others, stop striving for absolute certainty. Instead, focus on the relative superiority of your chosen option, recognizing inherent unknowns.