← The Knowledge Project

Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans

Sep 2, 2025 1h 13m 18 insights
Benedict Evans has been calling tech shifts for decades. Now he says forget the hype: AI isn't the new electricity. It's the biggest change since the iPhone, and that's plenty big enough. We talk about why everyone gets platform shifts wrong, where Google's actually vulnerable, and what real people do with AI when nobody's watching. Evans sees patterns others don't. This conversation will change how you think about what's actually happening versus what everyone says is happening. ----- Approximate Timestamps:
Actionable Insights

1. Cultivate Continuous Curiosity

Actively cultivate curiosity by consistently “looking for the next question” in any field or situation. This practice fosters continuous learning and discovery throughout your life.

2. Practice Critical Thinking & Synthesis

Develop “learning how to think” by practicing critical inquiry: ask the next question, break apart complex information, synthesize diverse sources, discern true meaning, evaluate credibility, and effectively explain concepts.

3. Create Your Own Knowledge Compressions

To avoid an “illusion of knowledge,” actively engage in a “learning loop” by having experiences, reflecting on them, and creating your own “compressions” or takeaways. This process ensures deeper understanding beyond just consuming others’ summaries.

4. Benchmark Ideas Against AI

Before sharing an insight, ask yourself, “Is this what ChatGPT would have said?” If the answer is yes, reconsider publishing, as this practice helps ensure your contributions are original, add value, and push beyond obvious answers.

5. Deliver Unique Insight Beyond AI

As LLMs commoditize common knowledge, prioritize providing unique and valuable insights that go beyond what AI can generate. This ensures your contributions remain relevant and valuable in a changing information landscape.

6. Employ Dual Thinking Modes

Utilize two distinct thinking modes: a discursive, free-associative one for broad exploration, and a focused, analytical one for breaking down complex topics into core components. This dual approach helps both generate ideas and achieve clear understanding.

7. Prioritize Relevance in Analysis

When analyzing data or presenting insights, consistently ask “who cares?” and “what actually matters?” This ensures your work focuses on relevant questions and delivers high-value information.

8. Understand Systemic Market Effects

Recognize that a market economy is a complex system where actions in one area will inevitably cause reactions elsewhere. Understand these systemic consequences to make informed decisions and achieve desired outcomes.

9. Recognize Policy Trade-offs

When evaluating policies or making strategic decisions, remember that “to govern is to choose,” meaning every choice has trade-offs and costs. Understand these consequences to make informed decisions.

10. Unbundle Incumbents with New Tech

When a new fundamental technology emerges, anticipate that incumbents will try to absorb it as a feature. Seek opportunities to “unbundle” existing companies and create new offerings, as this is where significant disruption and value creation often occur.

11. Beware Commoditization Trap

Be cautious when shifting from a high-margin product with unique IP to a low-margin, commoditized market. Without differentiation, you risk competing against an entire industry with little advantage, as Kodak experienced.

12. Target High-Friction AI Use Cases

Focus on identifying highly specific, high-friction, and time-consuming administrative tasks as prime targets for AI automation. Solving these “pain points” can deliver significant practical value, even if the technology is still evolving.

13. Startup Evaluation Framework

When evaluating a startup, focus on three key questions: “Could it work?”, “If it did work, what would it be?”, and “Could those people make it work?”. This framework helps assess potential and the team’s ability to execute.

14. Calibrate Through Broad Exposure

Develop “calibration” and pattern recognition by exposing yourself to a wide range of examples, such as many startups or diverse art. This helps you discern quality, understand what works, and recognize underlying patterns.

15. Seek External Context & Perspective

Recognize the insular nature of industry hubs and actively seek external context and diverse perspectives. This helps you avoid a narrow viewpoint and gain a broader understanding beyond your immediate professional circle.

16. Explore to Create Options

Actively explore diverse skills, subjects, and experiences, as you don’t know what you’ll excel at. This approach helps create future options and discover your true strengths.

17. View AI as Platform Shift

Adopt a realistic perspective on AI’s impact, viewing it as a significant but not apocalyptic platform shift, similar to the iPhone. This mindset can help you make more grounded decisions about its future influence on employment, economy, and intellectual property.

18. Embrace Unpredictable Change

Recognize that history teaches us only that “something will happen,” not what specifically. This encourages an adaptable mindset, preparing you for inevitable but unpredictable future shifts.