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Forensic Account: The Bubble No One is Talking About | Anthony Scilipoti

Oct 28, 2025 1h 34m 36 insights
Anthony Scilipoti is one of the sharpest minds in investing. He's the President and CEO of Veritas Group of Companies. He called the collapses of both Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Nortel before they happened, and now he has some thoughts on AI. We talk about asking better questions, reading the fine print, the role of short selling, and what it means to be wrong. We explore why AI gives you information but not insight, why cheap risk is often the most expensive, and why nothing matters until it does. It's a conversation about the difference between seeing and understanding and the discipline to notice what everyone else ignores. This episode is not investment advice. It’s time to listen and learn. ----- About Anthony Anthony Scilipoti is one of the sharpest minds in investing. He's the President and CEO of Veritas Group of Companies. ----- Approximate Chapters:
Actionable Insights

1. Define Success as Shareable Achievement

Reframe your definition of success to include achieving something that can be shared with loved ones, friends, employees, and customers, as true happiness and success are amplified through sharing.

2. Focus Intensely on Winning

Cultivate an intense focus on achieving your goals, ensuring that nothing else can distract or impede your path to winning.

3. Avoid Embarrassing Losses

Prioritize avoiding embarrassing losses—those where a company blows up and you lose a significant portion (20-50%) of your investment—as such losses can scar you and deter future investors.

4. Eliminate Investment Emotion

Ensure that emotions do not influence your investment decisions, as they can lead to poor long-term outcomes.

5. Verify Management Claims

Approach management’s statements with a mindset of ‘don’t trust, verify, and then trust,’ fostering curiosity and prompting you to ask questions and seek independent verification.

6. Read Footnotes Before Statements

Always read the notes to the financial statements first, before the main statements, to understand the accounting choices and modifications made by the company, which allows for better interpretation.

7. Deeply Understand Accounting

Invest time in deeply understanding the nuances of how financial statements are prepared, as this knowledge is crucial for accurate interpretation, similar to mastering a foreign language.

8. Understand Business & Control Environment

Before evaluating financials, thoroughly understand the business, its control environment, the accounting methods used, management compensation, and the company’s life cycle stage, as these provide crucial context.

9. Identify “Flammable Items”

Instead of labeling potential issues as ‘red flags,’ identify them as ‘flammable items’ that require further context and understanding of the business’s life cycle and strategy before drawing conclusions.

10. Seek “Sparks” for Flammable Items

After identifying ‘flammable items,’ actively look for ‘sparks’ (e.g., new competitors, expensive debt combined with market changes) that can turn a potential issue into a significant problem or ‘blow up.’

11. Assess True Organizational Culture

Look beyond written statements and press releases to understand an organization’s true culture, values, and operational practices, as these are not always reflected in official documents.

12. Beware Changing Non-GAAP Metrics

Be highly suspicious if a company frequently changes the calculation of its non-GAAP metrics (like adjusted EBITDA), as these are unaudited and can be manipulated by management.

13. Question Business Complexity

View unnecessary complexity in a company’s structure or operations as a potential ‘flammable item,’ and always ask ‘why is it happening?’ because nothing happens without a reason.

14. Analyze Facts, Constraints, Objectives

When evaluating any business or transaction, always start by understanding the facts, then consider the constraints (e.g., public/private, regulatory environment), and finally, the objectives (e.g., selling the business, investor expectations) to interpret accounting decisions.

15. Treat Stock Options as Expense

Consider stock options as an expense, similar to cash compensation, because they represent a cost to the company and incentivize management decisions focused on stock price manipulation rather than long-term value.

16. Seek Companies Avoiding Stock Options

Actively search for companies that do not use stock options for compensation, as this can be a strong indicator of management focused on long-term value and a good starting point for investment research.

17. Align Incentives with Longevity

Evaluate if a company’s management incentives align with long-term investor interests, such as longevity, cash generation, and organic growth, and be wary if performance metrics are inconsistently changed to ensure bonuses despite missed targets.

18. Boards Serve All Stakeholders

Understand that a board’s role extends beyond just shareholders to include employees, customers, communities, and competitors, ensuring executive decisions are made in the best interests of all stakeholders for long-term sustainability.

19. Welcome Constructive Criticism

Actively seek and welcome constructive criticism from partners and employees, creating an open environment where people feel comfortable pointing out flaws, as this is the only way to facilitate personal and organizational progress.

20. Acknowledge & Respond to Feedback

When receiving criticism, listen carefully, acknowledge the input, and then communicate your decision and the rationale behind it, so the person feels heard and part of the process, even if their suggestion isn’t fully adopted.

21. Master Financial Statement Linkages

Learn how financial statements are prepared and understand the linkages between different parts to develop mental models, enabling you to digest AI-provided information and make informed decisions rather than just receiving data.

22. Learn Fundamentals First

Before relying on tools like calculators or AI, master the underlying fundamentals of a subject (e.g., math tables, financial statement preparation) to build a foundational understanding.

23. Adhere to Deadlines Strictly

Treat deadlines with absolute strictness, as showing up late in the real world for critical deliverables like RFPs is unacceptable and following rules builds respect.

24. Build Mental Models via Experience

Actively seek out experiences to develop strong mental models, as experience teaches judgment and helps you understand what numbers truly mean, allowing you to recognize recurring patterns.

25. Identify Recurring Patterns

When analyzing situations, particularly in finance, focus on identifying what remains the same across different periods rather than what is perceived as different.

26. Avoid Market Prediction

Recognize that predicting market movements is a fool’s game and an impossible task; instead, focus on understanding the underlying companies.

27. Focus on Underlying Companies

Instead of trying to predict market movements, concentrate your investment analysis on the underlying companies and their fundamentals.

28. Beware Bull Market Euphoria

During raging bull markets, be cautious, as knowledge and experience can feel like a handicap, leading those without past blow-up experience to believe the market will always rally back.

29. Avoid “This Time It’s Different”

Recognize ’this time it’s different’ as the most dangerous words in finance and life, as patterns often repeat.

30. Recognize Retail Investor Power

Understand the significant and growing power of the retail investor in today’s markets, as their collective actions can have a substantial impact on stock movements.

31. Leverage Accessible Information

Take advantage of the unprecedented and low-cost access to technical, fundamental, and social media information available to retail investors, which can level the playing field.

32. Be Aware of Short-Term Focus

Recognize that the ease of trading and prevalence of short-term instruments like day options contribute to significant short-term market focus and volatility, which can influence stock movements.

33. Understand Options Market Momentum

Be aware that options trading, especially when market makers hedge their positions by buying the underlying stock, can create additional momentum and amplify price swings in the stock market.

34. AI: Tool, Not Judgment Replacement

View AI as a powerful tool for information retrieval, but not a replacement for human judgment, experience, and the ability to understand complex linkages and make decisions.

35. Seek Fulfilling Work

If your current work is unfulfilling, actively seek out opportunities or types of work that you find interesting and where your concerns or insights can lead to tangible outcomes, as this can bring huge fulfillment.

36. Read Financial Statement Footnotes

Spend decades reading the footnotes of financial statements, as this is where companies often hide what they don’t want you to see, allowing you to spot warning signs others miss.