← The Knowledge Project

#89 Maria Konnikova: Less Certainty, More Inquiry

Aug 4, 2020 1h 37m 26 insights
Professional poker player, psychologist and author of two New York Times best-sellers, Maria Konnikova discusses her mentors, making decisions in environments of uncertainty, the importance of reflection, cooling down your emotions and Sherlock Holmes. -- Want even more? Members get early access, hand-edited transcripts, member-only episodes, and so much more. Learn more here: https://fs.blog/membership/   Every Sunday our Brain Food newsletter shares timeless insights and ideas that you can use at work and home. Add it to your inbox: https://fs.blog/newsletter/   Follow Shane on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/ShaneAParrish
Actionable Insights

1. Distinguish Process from Outcome

Evaluate your decisions based on the soundness of your thought process, not solely on the outcome. A solid thought process indicates good decision-making, even if external factors lead to a poor result, and will lead to better conclusions over time.

2. Less Certainty, More Inquiry

Adopt a mindset of continuous inquiry by questioning assumptions, probing situations, and critically evaluating whether general advice applies to your specific circumstances, rather than blindly following prescriptions.

3. Establish Daily Reflection Routine

Create a regular habit of pausing from activity, silencing distractions, and performing a ‘brain dump’ to write down thoughts and feelings. This clears mental space, improves decision-making, and enhances emotional regulation.

4. Structured Emotional Management

To manage emotions, first identify the emotion and its root cause (incidental or integral). If incidental, consciously dismiss it by understanding its typical effect on your decisions and actively correcting for that bias.

5. Verbalize Your Thought Process

Actively explain your reasoning and thought process to others, as this externalization can help you identify flaws in your logic and improve your overall thinking, similar to how Watson aided Sherlock Holmes.

6. Reflect for Perspective & Goals

Regularly use reflection to realign with your overarching goals and the ‘big picture’ of a situation. This prevents getting sidetracked by intermediate objectives, petty arguments, or emotional dramas that are irrelevant to your main objective.

7. Seek Help for Emotional Control

Even if you have expertise in self-control, consider seeking external help from a mental game coach or specialist. This can help you identify specific emotional triggers and develop personalized strategies for managing them effectively.

8. Learn from Experts & Mentors

To quickly become proficient in a new skill, actively seek out and learn from experts or mentors who are highly skilled in that area. Mentorship provides crucial guidance and significantly accelerates your learning.

9. Pre-Emptive Reflection

Improve your immediate decision-making by pre-emptively reflecting on your thought process, imagining you’ll have to explain it to a mentor. This encourages a deliberate pause for deeper consideration before acting.

10. Self-Fact-Check & Question Confidence

Cultivate a habit of self-fact-checking and questioning your own confidence by asking ‘Why am I sure?’ and ‘Is the data reliable?’ This helps distinguish correct intuitions from false confidence, especially when you’re not an expert.

11. Accept Emotional Imperfection

Realize that emotional lapses will inevitably occur, and avoid self-recrimination for failing to control emotions perfectly. This self-compassion prevents further negative emotional spirals and allows for continued progress.

12. Engage in Active Reading

Practice active reading by rereading, underlining, and writing notes in the margins of nonfiction books. This helps you process information more deeply, synthesize thoughts, and engage thoughtfully with the text, rather than passively absorbing it.

13. Value Process-Oriented Mentors

When seeking guidance, prioritize mentors who focus on questioning your thought process (‘Why did you do this?’) rather than simply prescribing actions. This approach fosters deeper learning and self-reflection, building foundational understanding.

14. Use Betting as Certainty Test

To improve reasoning and certainty, mentally (or actually) assign a ‘bet’ or monetary value to your opinions or decisions. This forces you to critically evaluate your assumptions and confidence levels before making pronouncements.

15. Identify & Cool Emotional ‘Tilt’

Recognize ’tilt’ as the infiltration of irrelevant emotions (positive or negative) into your decision-making. Learn to ‘cool down’ these hot emotional processes to allow rational thought to prevail and make better decisions.

16. Pinpoint Specific Emotional Triggers

Work to identify your unique emotional triggers and understand how they specifically influence your decisions and behavior. Emotional responses to situations are highly individual and require personalized strategies.

17. Address Internalized Biases

Reflect on and acknowledge any internalized biases, stereotypes, or insecurities that might unconsciously influence your decisions and actions. Recognizing these hidden influences is crucial for making more objective choices.

18. Cultivate Continuous Learning

Maintain a mindset of continuous learning and adaptation by consistently questioning your own methods, remaining humble, and evolving your strategies based on new information and observations. This prevents stagnation and fosters long-term growth.

19. Skepticism of Prescriptive Advice

Be skeptical of anyone offering overly prescriptive advice (‘always do this,’ ’never do that’) without considering context. Avoid unthinkingly following such guidance, as it often lacks the nuance needed for real-world situations.

20. Creative Insight: Three-Pipe Problem

When facing complex problems, allow for periods of deliberate pause and reflection (a ’three-pipe problem’) to let your mind process information. This fosters creative insight and reveals solutions that aren’t immediately apparent.

21. Revisit Past Thoughts via Marginalia

Use marginalia in books as a tool for self-reflection, allowing you to revisit your past thoughts and perspectives when rereading. This provides insight into your personal and intellectual evolution over time.

22. Criteria for Mentor Selection

When choosing a mentor, look for individuals with a proven track record of longevity and consistent success, a humble demeanor, wide-ranging interests, and an approach that aligns with your strengths and learning style.

23. Leverage Coach’s Network

A great coach or mentor not only teaches directly but also leverages their network to connect you with other specialists for specific areas where you need advanced or different expertise, maximizing your learning opportunities.

24. Understand Skill vs. Luck

Recognize that while short-term outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, consistent skill and good decision-making will generally lead to success over the long term, provided initial bad luck doesn’t prematurely end your efforts.

25. Read Fiction and Poetry

Incorporate reading fiction and poetry into your habits, as these genres offer unique lessons and insights that complement nonfiction reading and contribute to a broader, more nuanced understanding of the world.

26. Abandon Unenjoyable Books

Feel free to stop reading books you are not enjoying or finding valuable. There are too many worthwhile books in the world to spend your limited time on those that don’t resonate with you.