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#39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking

Aug 21, 2018 57m 50s 44 insights
There are only a handful of websites that I read religiously. One of those is MarginalRevolution.com, started by my next guest, Tyler Cowen. Other than hosting one of the most popular economic blogs in the world, Tyler is also an economics professor at George Mason University, a regular New York Times columnist, and the author of over a dozen books, including Average is Over, and The Complacent Class. With such a prolific guest, it’s no wonder that we cover a lot of ground. In this episode, we discuss: How the future of labor will look drastically different than it does today, and what we can do to future-proof our livelihood The pros and cons of virtual reality and the impact it could have on society The fate of newspapers and how information will be more and more “bundled” according to our tastes and preferences Race relations in the world, and how in many ways we’ve taken discouraging steps backwards How we’re losing touch with the physical world, and some of the symptoms that indicate that we could be in for a rough ride What Tyler suggests doing to improve decision making and how important (and rare) that skill will be in the coming years Tyler’s advice to parents about how to foster resilience, tenacity and internal drive in their children Tyler’s “quake books” and the reading process he’s developed over the years that keeps him sharp Why giving books as gifts can be dangerous The one skill every person should possess before Googling anything What playing competitive chess as a child taught Tyler about how he thinks and views the world today And much more, including Tyler’s thoughts on minimum wage, bitcoin, and his favorite television programs. If you want to upgrade your thinking so you’re prepared for the brave new world that’s rapidly developing before our eyes, you won’t want to miss this fascinating episode.   Go Premium: Members get early access, ad-free episodes, hand-edited transcripts, searchable transcripts, member-only episodes, and more. Sign up at: https://fs.blog/membership/   Every Sunday our newsletter shares timeless insights and ideas that you can use at work and home. Add it to your inbox: https://fs.blog/newsletter/   Follow Shane on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/ShaneAParrish
Actionable Insights

1. Embrace Compound Learning

Continuously learn and let knowledge compound over time, viewing it like compound interest, to achieve significant growth and progress throughout your life.

2. Cultivate Meta-Rationality

Develop meta-rationality by realizing your own limitations and critically assessing what skills will truly matter in emerging sectors and technologies, rather than just feeling good about yourself.

3. Develop Judgment via Mentors & Online Experimentation

Cultivate good judgment by learning from trusted mentors who teach you about different areas, supplemented by extreme and intense online experimentation (e.g., using Google creatively, reading Wikipedia, listening to podcasts, curating social media feeds).

4. Combine Online & Face-to-Face Learning

Combine intense online learning and experimentation with face-to-face learning from human mentors who can guide, inspire, motivate, and steer you, as this combination leads to success.

5. Identify Intellectual Mistakes

Actively seek to identify your intellectual mistakes, facing up to the fact that you often don’t make the ‘best move’ intellectually, as this is crucial for continuous improvement and avoiding ossification.

6. Work on Imperfections

Face up to your own imperfections and actively work on them, as this habit is consistently rewarded.

7. Take Responsibility for Problems

Take responsibility for your own problems and imperfections, even if external factors are involved, and focus on working on them.

8. Re-energize After Setbacks

Prioritize re-energizing yourself in the face of setbacks, recognizing that morale is increasingly important in today’s world.

9. Embrace Humility & Re-energize

Accept feedback and embrace humility by recognizing that you will rarely be the best, using this realization to re-energize yourself rather than becoming discouraged.

10. Cultivate Internal Motivation

Foster internal motivation by focusing on aspirations and what you want to become, rather than claiming to be the best, as the internet constantly reveals others who are superior.

11. Master Deference to Expertise

Develop the wisdom to know how and when to defer to the knowledge and judgment of others, especially given the abundance of information available online.

12. Know When to Defer to Algorithms

Recognize that in a world of algorithms and AI, attempting to ‘beat’ them will lead to more mistakes; instead, cultivate the judgment to know when to defer to their advice.

13. Practice Epistemic Modesty

Develop epistemic modesty, which means having good judgment about when to trust the advice of others (including algorithms and online sources), as this is becoming more valuable than raw intelligence.

14. Question Independent Opinions

Recognize that on most matters, someone else likely knows more than you, so question the need to always hold independent opinions and consider finding expert opinions to inform your own.

15. Be Less Certain of Opinions

Cultivate intellectual humility by being far less sure about many of your opinions, acknowledging the vastness of knowledge held by others.

16. Learn from Disagreement

When encountering information that offends or disagrees with you, avoid dismissing it immediately; instead, try to learn from almost everything, as dismissal prevents growth.

17. Seek Out Disagreeable Books

Actively seek out and read books you disagree with, as they are more likely to challenge and educate you than books that simply confirm your existing views.

18. Avoid Devalue and Dismiss

Consciously avoid the intellectual move of ‘devalue and dismiss’ when encountering ideas or people, as this habit significantly hinders learning and personal improvement.

19. Generalize in Source Evaluation

If you choose to be a generalist, prioritize developing expertise in evaluating the quality of sources across all online platforms, as this skill is rapidly increasing in importance.

20. Be a Critical & Modest Online Reader

Be a critical reader of online information, judging the quality of sources, while also maintaining epistemic modesty to avoid becoming ‘stupider’ in the age of the internet.

21. Acquire Tech & People Skills

Acquire necessary skills and talents, specifically working with information technology and software, or developing wonderful people skills (sales, marketing, management), to thrive in a world where computers enhance productivity or compete against human labor.

22. Continuous Retraining

Retrain yourself every three to five years to stay current with rapidly changing information technology and software skills.

23. Identify Core Skillset

Identify whether you are primarily a ’tech person’ or a ‘sales, marketing, persuasion manager person’ and focus on developing expertise in one of these areas to position yourself well in the job market.

24. Adopt Munger’s Specialization-Generalization Mix

Consider Charlie Munger’s advice to hyper-specialize for 80-90% of your time, dedicating the remaining time to becoming a generalist in ‘big ideas’ of the world.

25. Be Authentic & Niche-Focused

In a competitive environment with many demands on attention, be authentic, dedicated, or target a niche to do something really interesting, as ‘slop’ will no longer suffice.

26. Prioritize Reading Time

For most books (excluding classics), don’t feel obligated to finish them; instead, constantly evaluate if continuing a book is more valuable than starting a new one, finishing only truly compelling works.

27. Pre-screen Books Ruthlessly

Start by reading the opening 20-30 pages of a book to quickly determine if it’s worth your time, discarding more than half if they don’t pass this initial test.

28. Fold Pages to Aid Memory

If you own a book, fold over pages with notable content to help you remember specific points, as the physical act can aid recall.

29. Curate Your News Consumption

Instead of consuming bundled news (like traditional newspapers), pick and choose individual articles and sources that are most efficient and relevant for you.

30. Leverage Easy Access to Culture

Utilize platforms like Spotify, YouTube, and Netflix streaming to easily and quickly access culture, allowing you to ‘pack more in’ without needing to physically ‘go out and do culture as much’.

31. Explore Foreign Films

Actively explore foreign films from countries like South Korea, Iran, or Latin America, as they offer diverse storytelling and can be a richer cinematic experience than current Hollywood offerings.

32. Prioritize Movies Over TV

Consider prioritizing watching movies over TV shows, as movies are often underrated and offer a higher quality experience than much of today’s ‘overrated’ TV.

33. Limit TV Consumption

Consciously limit your TV watching to very few, high-quality shows, or none at all, due to time constraints and the belief that movies are often better.

34. Adopt Rigorous Saving System

For those under 40, adopt a rigorous saving system with fixed rules, treating it ‘almost like a religion,’ to build wealth despite low-interest rates.

35. Live Off First Job Wage

Strive to live happily off the wage from your first job, banking any subsequent income increases, as this strategy in your 20s can set you up for life.

36. Minimize Spending with Internet Resources

Leverage the internet to find free or low-cost entertainment and resources, questioning the need to spend excessively and thereby facilitating saving.

37. Prioritize Function Over Status Purchases

Prioritize functional and reliable possessions (like a car) over expensive status symbols, even with a high income, to support saving and a deliberate lifestyle.

38. Avoid Bitcoin for Saving

Do not rely on Bitcoin as a primary means for saving or putting your wealth, despite its current interest.

39. Don’t Prioritize Being Right in Fights

In disagreements, especially with loved ones or colleagues, recognize that you are often wrong (or both sides are wrong) and avoid prioritizing proving yourself right, as this is usually a mistake.

40. Internalize Your Fallibility

Emotionally internalize even a small percentage of the realization that you are often wrong in disagreements, as this can significantly improve your interactions.

41. Expose Teens to Role Models

Expose your children, especially during their teen years, to many of your quality friends who can serve as alternative role models, as your direct influence as a parent becomes limited.

42. Promote Chess Education

Support and engage with initiatives that promote chess education, recognizing its value for developing thinking skills, though not necessarily making it mandatory.

43. Utilize Internet for Positive Gaming

Leverage the internet’s increased access to gaming, especially those with intellectual components, as a positive development for learning and development.

44. Be Cautious When Gifting Books

Be cautious about giving books as gifts, as the recipient might feel obligated to read it or misinterpret the implied message, unless you are certain it’s the perfect book for them.