In probabilistic domains like startups, creative arts, or sports, understand that success is measured at the portfolio or aggregate level, not by individual outcomes. This mindset allows you to take more chances and continue acting despite individual failures, rather than being paralyzed by the need for 100% success.
Avoid developing ‘psychic scar tissue’ from past failures by recognizing that an idea’s previous failure doesn’t mean it’s inherently bad; it’s often a matter of timing and execution. Re-evaluate ideas with fresh eyes, considering current context and the capabilities of the person executing them, as many past failures can become future successes.
To prevent complacency and sustain high performance, establish ‘forcing functions’ such as strong-willed advisors or a board of directors who will rigorously challenge your ideas. This ensures you are consistently compelled to think deeply, do thorough work, and defend your decisions, counteracting the natural tendency to become less rigorous with age or success.
Develop mental models of admired, intelligent individuals (e.g., Elon Musk for first principles, Peter Thiel for mimetic dynamics) and use them as a ‘forcing function’ to stress-test your own ideas. This practice helps you gain different perspectives, challenge your preconceptions, and identify blind spots by imagining how others would approach a situation.
Actively guard against reaching an ‘idea event horizon,’ a point where you become resistant or ‘done’ with processing new, disruptive ideas. This intellectual stagnation can severely hinder effective decision-making and lead to missing future opportunities in rapidly evolving fields.
To understand current events and societal changes, make a habit of reading backward through history to identify universal, deeply rooted human patterns. This practice can provide a calming perspective and reveal that many experiences perceived as ’new’ are actually old patterns recurring.
Be aware that successful startups typically transition into incumbents within about five years, shifting from an ‘attack mode’ to a ‘defend mode’ as they establish and protect their power and value. This understanding helps in strategic planning and anticipating resistance to new disruption.
When introducing new technology or disruptive ideas, anticipate a predictable three-step societal reaction: initial dismissal, followed by rational counterarguments from the status quo, and finally, emotional name-calling and moral accusations. This pattern occurs because new technology threatens to reorder existing power and status structures.
When confronted with deeply entrenched, dysfunctional systems (like the current education system) that are controlled by those benefiting from the status quo, abandon attempts at reform. Instead, focus energy on building entirely new systems from scratch, as existing incentives make internal change impossible.
Advocate for ‘pro-market’ policies that enforce rigorous market discipline and competition, rather than ‘pro-business’ policies that allow industries to form monopolies or oligopolies and engage in regulatory capture. True competition is essential for driving quality control and innovation.
When evaluating founders, adapt your assessment based on their experience level: for experienced individuals, examine their track record for performance under pressure, inventiveness, persistence, and decision-making. For new founders, look for deep, long-term engagement with the problem domain, often evidenced by years of thinking, prototyping, or having running code.
For venture capital firms, implement a ‘single trigger puller’ decision-making model where individual partners have delegated budgets and autonomy to make investments without a formal vote or veto. This fosters speed and the ability to back contrarian, paradigm-breaking ideas, provided thorough due diligence and open communication of rationale are maintained.